Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2018 Sep 29 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2018 | Sep 29 | Sep 30 | Oct 01 |
|---|
| 00-03UT | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 03-06UT | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 06-09UT | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 09-12UT | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 12-15UT | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15-18UT | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18-21UT | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 21-00UT | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2018 | Sep 29 | Sep 30 | Oct 01 |
|---|
| S1 or greater | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2018 | Sep 29 | Sep 30 | Oct 01 |
|---|
| R1-R2 | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| R3 or greater | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Real Time Images of the Sun
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections.
EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths,
and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures.
In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin.
In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees.
195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees.
The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
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Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.
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Solar Cycle
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles.
The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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with 3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast text formatting by Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather